AP-KFF Poll Tracks Rural Voters' Views of Trump Before Midterms

A new poll from The Associated Press and KFF is asking a question with real consequences for the 2026 midterms: how do rural voters feel about President Trump right now. The survey, reported by AP and aggregated through Google News, focuses on a demographic that has been central to Republican coalitions in recent election cycles and whose enthusiasm — or lack of it — could help decide which party controls Congress after November.

What does the new AP-KFF poll examine?

The poll, described in AP's reporting as a joint AP-KFF effort, measures rural voter sentiment toward the president as the midterm campaign season heats up. AP frames the survey as offering "fresh data on a key constituency whose support could shape control of Congress," according to the outlet's own summary of the project. The full breakdown of numbers, methodology, and sample size is contained in AP's original report, linked below, and readers who want the complete toplines and crosstabs should consult that story directly.

Why do rural voters matter for control of Congress?

Congressional control this cycle will be decided seat by seat, and many of the most competitive House and Senate races run through districts and states with large rural populations. That is why a poll specifically isolating rural respondents, rather than folding them into a general national sample, draws attention from campaign strategists on both sides. A shift in enthusiasm among rural voters, even a modest one, can move margins in districts where turnout among a smaller population base carries outsized weight.

What's the broader election climate rural voters face?

Rural voters are weighing the president's performance against a backdrop of other election-related news this cycle. A separate HTT News report published September 17 detailed a rise in election fraud cases amid integrity concerns nationwide, a topic that has featured prominently in campaign messaging in rural and urban areas alike. That report does not address rural voter opinion specifically, but it illustrates the wider set of issues — from ballot administration to candidate messaging — competing for attention as the midterms approach. Voters weighing the president's record are doing so alongside debates over how elections themselves are run and verified.

What does this mean for ranching and farming communities?

Rural America is not a single bloc, and its economic concerns vary by region and industry. In Idaho, for example, ranchers have been adopting new sustainable beef production practices, according to a recent Rex Ranch Life report on innovations in that sector. Agricultural policy, trade rules, and land-use decisions remain daily concerns for ranching and farming households regardless of which party controls Washington, and those pocketbook issues typically factor into how rural voters answer pollsters' questions about a sitting president's job performance. The AP-KFF survey's focus on rural voters specifically, rather than a general national cross-section, is intended to capture how those on-the-ground economic realities intersect with political approval.

What should voters watch before November?

AP has not yet published a full second wave or trend comparison alongside this survey, so it is not yet possible to say whether rural sentiment is moving in a particular direction over time based on the material available. Readers tracking the run-up to the midterms should watch for:

• The full AP-KFF poll release, including sample size, margin of error, and demographic breakdowns, published through AP's own reporting.
• Any follow-up AP-NORC or KFF surveys that could show whether rural approval numbers are trending up, down, or holding steady closer to Election Day.
• State and district-level polling in competitive rural-heavy races, which will offer a more localized picture than a single national survey.
• Coverage of election administration and integrity issues, which continues to develop alongside voter-sentiment polling this cycle.

Where can readers see the full poll results?

The original AP report containing the poll's detailed findings is available through the link below. HTT News will continue to follow how rural voter sentiment develops as more polling data becomes available ahead of November.