2026 KFF-AP Poll Signals Rural Economic Strain for Trump

A new poll conducted by KFF and The Associated Press examines whether economic frustration is testing President Trump's standing among rural voters, according to a report from The Good Men Project. The survey, described as newly released, focuses on a group that has been central to Trump's coalition in recent elections: voters outside the nation's metropolitan centers.

What does the new KFF-AP survey examine?

The report's headline frames the poll around a single question: whether day-to-day economic pressure — the cost of fuel, equipment, groceries and credit that shapes life on farms and ranches — is beginning to erode support that has otherwise held steady. The originating report does not publish full topline numbers in the material reviewed by this desk, so specific percentages from the survey are not repeated here.

Why rural economic frustration could matter politically

Rural counties have delivered wide margins for Trump in past cycles, and any erosion in that base carries outsized weight in states with large agricultural and ranching populations. Pollsters at organizations like KFF, a nonpartisan health policy research group, and AP-NORC, the Associated Press's polling partner, have tracked rural sentiment specifically because national surveys often dilute small-town and farm-country opinion into a single rural/urban split that misses local variation.

What do ranch economics show about the pressure points?

Operators closer to the ground describe the same cost dynamics in less abstract terms. On the Absaroka Front, the TE Ranch has worked to balance conservation commitments with cattle operations, a balancing act that reflects the financial tightrope many ranch families walk between land stewardship obligations and the margins needed to keep a herd profitable. That tension — between long-term land management and short-term cash flow — is the kind of pressure that polling on "economic frustration" is designed to capture, even when a single survey cannot show it county by county.

What does the poll leave unanswered?

The Good Men Project's write-up signals a finding in its headline — that frustration is "testing" Trump's standing — without, in the material available, detailing sample size, margin of error, or the specific policy questions respondents were asked. Readers looking for the full methodology and crosstabs should consult the original KFF-AP release directly rather than secondary summaries.

Terms to know

KFF: A nonpartisan organization, formerly the Kaiser Family Foundation, that conducts health and social policy research and polling.

AP-NORC: A polling partnership between the Associated Press and NORC at the University of Chicago, used for national public opinion surveys.

Rural voter: In most federal polling, a respondent living outside a metropolitan statistical area, often used as a proxy for farm, ranch, and small-town populations.

For the complete survey details, the original report remains the primary source. HTT News has also covered how ranchers are navigating sustainability pressures in Idaho, offering additional texture on the cost pressures rural operators describe.